tSphoarnhore
There have been a flurry of Post Office memes highlighting the elimination of some processing machines, reduction in service, removal of mailboxes, etc. Full blown hysteria has ensued, with conspiracy theories implying or outright accusing a sabotage of the election. The evidence so far is weak for this conspiracy and there are much more reasonable explanations. This post addresses not just this meme, but many similar ones as there are just too many to take on.
-Without context, people think if the entire nation potentially sent in ballots by mail it would be a huge influx to the postal system. But the Post Office processes and delivers 471M mail pieces every day. Even if ALL 140M people voted by mail (the number voting in the last election) and ALL sent their ballots the same day, it would be just 30% of the mail volume for one day.
-The reality is that the PO has had steadily declining volume for decades. The peak was in 2001, when they delivered over 103B pieces of mail. By 2010 that fell to 77.6B, and in 2019 just 54.9B. This reality caused the PO to issue a “5 year plan,” to revamp their system and priorities from FY2020-24. It was published before all this hoopla about COVID and mail-in ballots, and put out by the previous Postmaster General Megan Brennan, not Luis DeJoy which the current conspiracy theories involve.
-The report mentions since 2007 they’ve suffered 13 years of consecutive net losses, totaling $77.8 billion. They expect to run out of liquidity by 2021 if they pay all their financial obligations, and by 2024 even if they continue to default on the lump sum retiree health-benefit and pension related payments.
-In response, they “have reduced the total number of career employees by more than 84,000 by restructuring delivery routes, reducing lobby hours at 13,000 underutilized retail offices, and consolidating mail processing at more than 360 facilities.”
-The report says First Class Mail volumes have declined by more than 40B pieces (43%) since 2007 and Marketing Mail, which comprises the majority of the volume, declined by more than 27B (26%).
-At the same time, the number of delivery points (excluding PO Boxes) increased by 10%, or 12.8M and pieces delivered per delivery point fell by 39%. Approximately 36% of retail locations are retained (as required by law) despite being unprofitable. In 2019 the Postal Service lost about 6.1 cents for every piece delivered and predicted that gap will widen in the future. From the report, “Over the next five years, we expect the number of delivery points we serve to grow by 1 million every year while mail volume will continue to decline and package volume will grow modestly.”
-In other words, they need significant restructuring, as they are supposed to be self-sufficient. While they don’t give a ton of specifics, their 5 year plan envisions “embarking on a broad transformation from operating a fixed processing and transportation network to managing an adaptive domestic and international integrated processing and transportation logistics ecosystem.”
-The one element of their business that has increased is packages, doubling since 2007. The PO sees this, along with “last-mile delivery” as the future. Particularly 2 day package delivery, as most online customers desire their order quickly. While they’ll still provide mail delivery, that’s what the PO is focusing on and adapting their network to serve.
-Part of that means removing old and underused infrastructure, like processing machines or the blue mail drop boxes. Often there are two or more boxes in many locations anyway, but the pictures of them being trucked away without context makes for a good hysterical meme.
-As for slowing down delivery, the USA Today published a fact check where they determined this to be false. The PO claims they aren’t slowing down regular or election mail. If you are concerned or don’t trust them, it might be wise to plan a few more days ahead, but there’s no evidence of any orchestrated scheme to slow down mail. Remember, their total volume has fallen substantially in recent years, and even a huge amount of mail-in ballots won’t change that.
-Trump has been outspoken against mail-in balloting and against more funding for the PO, but has also said he wouldn’t veto a relief bill that included extra PO funding. The PO already received $10B in loans from the CARES Act, and Democrats want another $25B with the HEROES Act. It appears there will be little political will to stop this, and far from being gutted, the PO will likely receive record public funding.
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